Programme, Cost & Risk Impact

Latest position following the 22 July 2026 crane report — programme recovery, commercial impact, and forecast, in one place.

1 — Programme Impact

1½ weeks recovered

22 July 2026 report from MTX: Crane 1 can now be completed in 5 weeks, with no impact to the completion date or the overall forecast.

Previous dates
Rig
27→28 Jul 2026
De-rig
8→9 Sep 2026
weeks recovered
Revised dates
Rig
5 Aug 2026
De-rig
8→9 Sep 2026

Beyond 5 August, further slippage begins to impact the completion date. The Option 1/Option 2 programme charts elsewhere on this site still show the previous dates — to be updated once the revised dates are confirmed.

2 — Commercial Impact

Cost impact

Position on crane hire costs and the option-specific works required either side of the revised rig date.

No cost impact to 5 August
Crane is leased for 6½ weeks — this covers the revised programme with no overall cost impact.
Standing charges beyond 5 August
£3,000 per day if the 5 August rig date is exceeded.
Potential cost exposure — 1 month delay
Crane standing charge — £3,000/day × 30 days£90,000.00
Preliminaries — £3,341.23/day × 30 days£100,236.90
Total potential cost exposure£190,236.90

Illustrative for a full 1-month delay beyond the 5 August rig date; scales roughly linearly for shorter or longer delays. This is additional real cost — separate from the cash-flow timing shift shown in the Forecast section below.

Option 1 — Car Park 2 Siting

Cost to relocate 40 DDA bays, reinstatement and modification of the car park layout, and relocation of DDA spaces post-completion.

Budget£25,000
Covers painting, hoarding, etc. Open item: to be confirmed whether this £25k is added to, or omitted from, the current Option 1 cost position.
Option 2 — East Road Siting

Cost to relocate shoreline chargers and provide temporary lighting in Level 1.

Budget£10,000
3 — Forecast

April 2026 – March 2027

Bottom-line monthly cost and cumulative total, extracted from the 14 July 2026 cashflow forecast (P21-0015 — Women's Centre Upgrade). Figures exclude VAT.

MonthMonthly totalCumulative total
Apr-26£ –£0.00
May-26£ –£0.00
Jun-26£120,032.00£120,032.00
Jul-26£610,859.76 *£730,891.76
Aug-26£806,202.31£1,537,094.07
Sep-26£371,315.37£1,908,409.44
Oct-26£191,851.79£2,100,261.23
Nov-26£264,359.78£2,364,621.01
Dec-26£236,638.10£2,601,259.11
Jan-27£180,566.54£2,781,825.65
Feb-27£270,942.89£3,052,768.54
Mar-27£265,875.34£3,318,643.88

Cumulative is rebased to £0 at Apr-26 — it reflects spend within this 12-month window only, not the whole-project cumulative (which was already £1,455,400.00 by the end of Mar-26).

* As printed in the source forecast, the Jul-26 monthly figure (£610,859.76) does not fully reconcile against the stated cumulative movement for that month (which implies approx. £490,827.76) — flagging as an apparent inconsistency in the source spreadsheet rather than adjusting it. All other months reconcile exactly.

VAT position — Apr-26 to Mar-27 window
MTX net total (window, per forecast)£3,318,643.88
Less: accrual (FY25/26)−£726,681.00
MTX net total (excl. accrual)£2,591,962.88
Plus: zero-rated professional fees / non-works (0% VAT)+£216,379.00
Total net (incl. professional fees)£2,808,341.88
VATable net (MTX total only — professional fees are 0% VAT)£2,591,962.88
VAT at 20%£518,392.58
Less: VAT recovery (4.4% of VAT charged)−£22,809.27
Net irrecoverable VAT£495,583.30
Total cash cost, incl. irrecoverable VAT£3,303,925.18

Whole-window summary only — the source forecast isn't broken down by VAT treatment on a month-by-month basis, so this reconciles the 12-month total rather than adjusting individual monthly figures above. The £726,681 accrual relates to FY25/26 and is excluded from this window's MTX net total.

Cumulative — total cash cost (incl. VAT & professional fees)

The table above is net MTX spend. This chart grosses that same monthly profile up proportionally to the £3,303,925.18 total cash cost from the VAT position above (after removing the FY25/26 accrual), then shows what 1, 2, 3 and 4 months of slippage would do to it against a £3m reference.

£3m
AprMayJunJulAugSep OctNovDecJanFebMar
Monthly spend
Cumulative total cash cost
+1 month slip
+2 months slip
+3 months slip
+4 months slip
£3m reference

The dashed lines are illustrative examples only, not a forecast: each shows the same cumulative total cash cost simply pushed back by 1, 2, 3 or 4 months — for reference in case time is lost somewhere in the programme.

ScenarioCrosses £3m in
On programme (no slip)Feb-27
+1 month slipMar-27
+2 months slipBeyond Mar-27 — outside this window
+3 months slipBeyond Mar-27 — outside this window
+4 months slipBeyond Mar-27 — outside this window
£264,696.14
Cash-flow gap (timing only)
+
£190,236.90
Real cost exposure (standing charge + prelims)
If there's a month's slippage from 4 August: £264,696.14 slippage — cash-flow timing shift only, this spend simply moves forward into FY27/28, it is not added to project cost — + £190,236.90 add — real additional cost (crane standing charge + prelims), which is a genuine addition to project cost.
4 — Risk

Risk register

RiskConsequenceLikelihoodImpactComment
No decision is made on crane location Loss of expense claims. Rolling cost exposure on standing costs and preliminaries. Medium High This is needed by 29 July.
No decision/approval on the oversailing tower under either option with current mitigations MTX won't start works without approval. Medium High Requires written approval.
Adverse weather Stops crane operations. Low High Works are being undertaken during the summer months.
Emergencies accessing the building under option 2 Stops crane operations. High High Mitigations are under MTX logistics planning.
Live load dropping as crane oversails tower of building Death Low High Mitigations are under MTX logistics planning. The crane subcontractor's risk register rates this as low likelihood.
Vibration/noise complaints Loss of expense claims. Rolling cost exposure on standing costs and preliminaries. High High Plan to undertake testing above non-critical areas to provide a suitable methodology that meets the parameters for NICU.
Roof not holding equipment weight Damage/collapse/death Low High A professional structural engineer has been appointed and has confirmed the roof capacity.
Fire evacuation needed in the building during the works Loss of expense claims. Rolling cost exposure on standing costs and preliminaries. Medium High Based on the current condition of the building and recent events, we are requesting confirmation from MTX that they will comply with the Trust fire evacuation plan, both during rig and de-rig and throughout the works.
Complaints on car parking under either option drive a decision to cancel the crane Loss of expense claims. Rolling cost exposure on standing costs and preliminaries. Low High Crane 1 will be there under the summer holidays, which we understand is lower car parking usage months. We understand this is managed by the transport team.
Fire brigade approval due to enforcement under option 2 Loss of expense claims. Rolling cost exposure on standing costs and preliminaries. Medium High The fire safety team has assured us that maintaining clockwise access by opening a second entrance, along with pedestrian access, will likely be accepted; however, the fire brigade needs to be consulted.