HP0005-JWCV

Programme, Cost & Risk Impact

Latest position following the 22 July 2026 crane report — programme recovery, commercial impact, and forecast, in one place.

1 — Programme Impact

1½ weeks recovered

22 July 2026 report from MTX: Crane 1 can now be completed in 5 weeks, with no impact to the completion date or the overall forecast.

Previous dates
Rig
27→28 Jul 2026
De-rig
8→9 Sep 2026
weeks recovered
Revised dates
Rig
5 Aug 2026
De-rig
21 Sep 2026

Beyond 5 August, further slippage begins to impact the completion date. The Option 1/Option 2 programme charts elsewhere on this site still show the previous dates — to be updated once the revised dates are confirmed.

2 — Commercial Impact

Cost impact

Position on crane hire costs and the option-specific works required either side of the revised rig date.

No cost impact to 5 August
Crane is leased for 6½ weeks — this covers the revised programme with no overall cost impact.
Standing charges beyond 5 August
£3,000 per day if the 5 August rig date is exceeded.
Potential cost exposure — 1 month delay
Crane standing charge — £3,000/day × 30 days£90,000.00
Preliminaries — £3,341.23/day × 30 days£100,236.90
Total potential cost exposure£190,236.90

Illustrative for a full 1-month delay beyond the 5 August rig date; scales roughly linearly for shorter or longer delays. This is additional real cost — separate from the cash-flow timing shift shown in the Forecast section below.

Option 1 — Car Park 2 Siting

Cost to relocate 40 DDA bays, reinstatement and modification of the car park layout, and relocation of DDA spaces post-completion.

Budget£20,000
Covers painting, hoarding, etc. Open item: to be confirmed whether this £20k is added to, or omitted from, the current Option 1 cost position.
Option 2 — East Road Siting

Cost to relocate shoreline chargers and provide temporary lighting in Level 1.

BudgetTo be confirmed
3 — Forecast

April 2026 – March 2027

Bottom-line monthly cost and cumulative total, extracted from the 14 July 2026 cashflow forecast (P21-0015 — Women's Centre Upgrade). Figures exclude VAT.

MonthMonthly totalCumulative total
Apr-26£ –£0.00
May-26£ –£0.00
Jun-26£120,032.00£120,032.00
Jul-26£610,859.76 *£730,891.76
Aug-26£806,202.31£1,537,094.07
Sep-26£371,315.37£1,908,409.44
Oct-26£191,851.79£2,100,261.23
Nov-26£264,359.78£2,364,621.01
Dec-26£236,638.10£2,601,259.11
Jan-27£180,566.54£2,781,825.65
Feb-27£270,942.89£3,052,768.54
Mar-27£265,875.34£3,318,643.88

Cumulative is rebased to £0 at Apr-26 — it reflects spend within this 12-month window only, not the whole-project cumulative (which was already £1,455,400.00 by the end of Mar-26).

* As printed in the source forecast, the Jul-26 monthly figure (£610,859.76) does not fully reconcile against the stated cumulative movement for that month (which implies approx. £490,827.76) — flagging as an apparent inconsistency in the source spreadsheet rather than adjusting it. All other months reconcile exactly.

VAT position — Apr-26 to Mar-27 window
MTX net total (window, per forecast)£3,318,643.88
Less: accrual (FY25/26)−£726,681.00
MTX net total (excl. accrual)£2,591,962.88
Plus: zero-rated professional fees / non-works (0% VAT)+£216,379.00
Total net (incl. professional fees)£2,808,341.88
VATable net (MTX total only — professional fees are 0% VAT)£2,591,962.88
VAT at 20%£518,392.58
Less: VAT recovery (4.4% of VAT charged)−£22,809.27
Net irrecoverable VAT£495,583.30
Total cash cost, incl. irrecoverable VAT£3,303,925.18

Whole-window summary only — the source forecast isn't broken down by VAT treatment on a month-by-month basis, so this reconciles the 12-month total rather than adjusting individual monthly figures above. The £726,681 accrual relates to FY25/26 and is excluded from this window's MTX net total.

Cumulative — total cash cost (incl. VAT & professional fees)

The table above is net MTX spend. This chart grosses that same monthly profile up proportionally to the £3,303,925.18 total cash cost from the VAT position above (after removing the FY25/26 accrual), then shows what 1, 2, 3 and 4 months of slippage would do to it against a £3m reference.

£3m
AprMayJunJulAugSep OctNovDecJanFebMar
Monthly spend
Cumulative total cash cost
+1 month slip
+2 months slip
+3 months slip
+4 months slip
£3m reference

The dashed lines are illustrative examples only, not a forecast: each shows the same cumulative total cash cost simply pushed back by 1, 2, 3 or 4 months — for reference in case time is lost somewhere in the programme.

ScenarioCrosses £3m in
On programme (no slip)Feb-27
+1 month slipMar-27
+2 months slipBeyond Mar-27 — outside this window
+3 months slipBeyond Mar-27 — outside this window
+4 months slipBeyond Mar-27 — outside this window
£264,696.14
Cash-flow gap (timing only)
+
£190,236.90
Real cost exposure (standing charge + prelims)
If there's a month's slippage from 4 August: £264,696.14 slippage — cash-flow timing shift only, this spend simply moves forward into FY27/28, it is not added to project cost — + £190,236.90 add — real additional cost (crane standing charge + prelims), which is a genuine addition to project cost.
4 — Risk

Risk register

In progress
Risk register and mitigations to follow.